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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Preparation and Prevention for those who are injured

#41 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 10:12 AM

Coronavirus Update with Stefan Molyneux! March 13 2020

Is it time to panic? President Donald Trump plans to declare a national emergency on Friday over the coronavirus outbreak, invoking the Stafford Act to open the door to more federal aid for states and municipalities, according to two people familiar with the matter. The president said he will hold a news conference at 3 p.m. in Washington. Trump spoke Friday with Emmanuel Macron, the French president tweeted, about the pandemic, and agreed to organize a video conference with world leaders on Monday to coordinate research efforts on a vaccine and treatments and work on how to respond to the economic fallout. Trump is under increasing pressure to act as governors and mayors nationwide step up actions to mitigate the spread, closing schools and canceling public events. Declaring a national emergency would allow the government to marshal additional resources to combat the virus, and also marks a symbolic turning point for the president, who has repeatedly compared the coronavirus to the seasonal flu and insisted that his administration had the outbreak under control.


"The number of people that are infected with the new coronavirus is entirely dependent on how America responds to the outbreak, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.


"If we are complacent and don't do really aggressive containment and mitigation, the number could go way up and be involved in many, many millions," Fauci told members of the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Wednesday.


The community of Chinese people in Italy has grown rapidly in the past ten years. Official statistics indicate there are at least 320,794 Chinese citizens in Italy, although these figures do not account for illegal immigration, former Chinese citizens who have acquired Italian nationality or Italian-born people of Chinese descent."

https://www.youtube....h?v=gjgYQvwe4oQ
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#42 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 10:18 AM

View PostHemi, on 14 March 2020 - 10:00 AM, said:

You do better then Thomas seeing as ya such a know all expert on virus containment.
What’s your plan Tankman?
Same as your beloved China where it came from in the first place
If Anyone’s a dumb ass then it’s you as you qualify for that title with your long term record of dumb activity.
Pp
Let me know and I’ll come and weld ya doors shut like China did if ya so worried. Posted Image/>


Please join with me to save lives
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#43 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 10:22 AM


Trump declares national emergency in response to coronavirus

President Trump declared a national emergency in response to coronavirus on March 13, to provide emergency funding to state and local governments.

https://www.youtube....h?v=jKWXplosNfk

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#44 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 10:28 AM


Keeping workplaces, homes, schools, or commercial establishments safe

https://www.cdc.gov/...me-guidance.pdf

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#45 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 11:18 AM

Urgent
Confront the seriousness of Covid 19 right now. Lives are at stake New Zealand's economy and future is at stake.

It is already too late to isolate New Zealand from the rest of the world.


Like it or not New Zealand is going to feel the full impact of Covid 19.

If we do nothing at all approximately two thirds to 3/4 of our population is going to suffer from Covid 19.

Most of this number will suffer from a mild infection through to a full-blown influenza style sickness involving coughing, difficulty breathing, lethargy and suchlike.


Over 600,000 are going to need hospitalisation and specialist care.

Over 150,000 are going to require intensive care hospitalisation.

More than 100,000 will die. most of the deaths are as a result of their not being enough hospital beds, medical professionals and adequate care. Medical professions will find it necessary to triage this number which means simply choosing who was not going to have treatment and I going to be sent home to die. This is mostly going to be old people say 70 and above, smokers, those who have pre-existing respiratory conditions or other conditions such as diabetes and suchlike that compromises or weakens an immune system.


The historical facts of Covid 19 obtained from the international figures confirm the above. This is the seriousness of the disease we are facing.
The personal cost of our government failing to act in a timely fashion all result in a catastrophic collapse of our social structure which could even lead to anarchy. Imagine people fighting over toilet rolls times 100 million when they fight over everything including items needed for our very survival.

To mitigate the seriousness of our predicament we need to act now. I do mean now stop.

Do not make the mistake of making your decisions based on historical information. This means don't make decisions by way of a reactive method.

Do make your decisions based on science which is acquired from others misfortune overseas and make your decisions with the anticipation of what is coming at us. This means acting by the "proactive" method.

Your thinking needs to be don't wait until the train runs you over to figure out that the train is dangerous. Treat the oncoming train as being dangerous based on the experience of others and step out of its way.


Wash your hands a lot


Don't touch your face

Don't breathe anyone else's air whether it be a droplet from a cough or sneeze and even from the air that has wafted across the room.


Don't go to any crowds or functions. The greater the number the greater the risk of infection. This includes school, churches, memorials, funerals and even the workplace, particularly in an enclosed space such as an office in close proximity with others. Large factory areas or outdoors where it is not really possible to be breathing someone's air is probably reasonably safe. only go to an outdoor sporting event if you can stand some distance from others, in other words not in a stadium.

If you have a temperature rise above 37.5 Celsius, have a dry cough and feel a bit poorly treat yourself as being sick and stay away from others until proven otherwise.

Doing all these things doesn't mean that we won't get the virus eventually but at least we will have slowed it down so as not to overburden our medical services. We may even be so lucky as to delay the process long enough until a vaccine comes along which will probably be next year.

If we follow the above we will be directly contributing towards the survival of our fellow New Zealanders and prevent the hospitals from being overloaded.


Please give the weak and infirm a chance to live.


Do these things before you are sick. Please avoid having blood on your hands.
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#46 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 11:21 AM

From a purely personal and self-centred viewpoint, as a member of this site and ACC claimant, I don't want stupid people to unnecessarily overwhelm the medical services which might kill all of the ACC decision-making staff so that they generate any further delays to determine the degree of my disability is from the time of my injury until the present and calculate then pay the money they owe me.


I'm serious about this because the work environment of the ACC staff can only be described as extraordinary high-risk for contracting Covid 19 of which a significant percentage are either going to die will be seriously injured for a lengthy period of time by this virus. Of course simply by the fact that 60 or 70% of them are going to be sick this alone is going to delay all of their decisions to pay all of us our entitlements.

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#47 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 12:41 PM

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

https://www.youtube....cUk5FRiM3g5sqoQ

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#48 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 01:11 PM

Vital Global Information Please watch

Our borders cannot possibly detect carriers of Covid 19. That's not really anybody's fault so let's not play the blame game. We have the covid 19 coming to New Zealand like it or not. It might come quickly or it might come slowly.

Where do we stand right now? Statistically we can be certain that there are a lots of infected people in our community already that may only suspect that they are infected or have little to no indication that they might be infected. This number is probably around 50 and could even be 100. Most probably they have recently travelled abroad or are associated with someone who has travelled abroad.

Covid 19 is a New Zealand and will be showing up as an epidemic in the coming weeks. All we can do is slow its progress so we can give our medical people are fighting chance to save us.


Here's the choice:


practice hygiene and quarantine procedures. Keep testing & immediately isolate infected patients (at home unless they need medical support) and thereby reduce the number of infections/deaths overall

OR


Don't carry out widescale testing or activate quarantine procedures on a wide scale and let the weak in the herd die, untested, unnoticed, spreading infection till the bitter end, greatly increasing the # of deaths. Why on earth would the govt choose the latter course???? Yet, they have.



https://www.youtube....h?v=BYTFk34nhoI
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#49 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 03:45 PM

Let's play so me Covid 19 numbers while we wait


https://www.andology...prediction-tool

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#50 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 03:56 PM


How Dangerous is COVID-19?
You may have heard several different projections about the fatality rate of COVID-19. How do different health organizations come up with these figures, and why do the numbers seem so fluid?



https://www.youtube....h?v=qf3Ih0kNvlU


Sources: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detai... https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss197... https://www.who.int/docs/default-sour... https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/27/a... https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cmmm... https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/n... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/26/he... https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/... https://khn.org/news/fact-check-coron... https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science... https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/25/n... https://www.washingtonpost.com/outloo... https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama... https://www.who.int/docs/default-sour... https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/ap... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S3 https://www.aappublications.org/news/... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti... https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/w... https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/... https://www.businessinsider.com/how-m... https://miro.medium.com/max/1448/1*-q... https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
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#51 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 06:59 PM

Everyone travelling to NZ from overseas to self-isolate


https://www.stuff.co...ovid19-outbreak




Dos and Don'ts of self isolation - your questions answered

https://www.rnz.co.n...stions-answered




Covid-19: how to protect yourself and others

https://www.rnz.co.n...self-and-others



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#52 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 07:06 PM

Sixth case of Covid-19 coronavirus in New Zealand confirmed

The sixth case of Covid-19 coronavirus in New Zealand has been confirmed by Waitematā District Health Board.
Waitemata DHB chief executive Dale Bramley announced this afternoon that a man who returned home from the United States of America on 6 March has been confirmed as having the virus.

The man, who is in his sixties, heard a friend in the US was infected with Covid-19 and went to a GP on Thursday. Tests from Auckland City Hospital showed he was positive for the virus last night.

He was currently doing well at home and his wife was in self-isolation.

Other close contacts were being followed up by the Auckland Regional Health Service and would be asked to go into self-isolation.

The man attended an 8.30am church service last Sunday at St Mary's Church in Papakura, the day before he started feeling unwell.

Some people from that church service would be followed up as close contacts, Bramley said.

The Catholic Bishop of Auckland, Patrick Dunn, said the wellbeing of parishioners was their first priority.

The church is contacting people who attended the service - particularly older members.

The church's services today and tomorrow will continue as normal.

Another probable case of Covid-19 at North Shore Hospital had been sent home and was doing well, Bramley said.


There are two more cases yet to be confirmed. (It takes about 48 hours)


hundreds are in quarantine who are considered to be a high risk possibility of being confirmed.

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#53 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 08:36 PM


Are we doing enough?


https://www.youtube....h?v=C98FmoZVbjs

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#54 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 14 March 2020 - 09:47 PM

What will and will not work?



Our government has effectively closed our borders in the hope to reduce the Infection rate to a manageable level. However this will only work if we had no virus on the rampage within our community right now.


If we can't bring ourselves to believe that we don't have any body running free infecting others at this point in time then we must acknowledge that closing the borders won't work but only slow the progress of the virus.


Total quarantine
If we were to put the whole country into quarantine like Wuhan so that we get about the same number of new cases per thousand as Wuhan, my simple calculations are that this virus will be beaten by about October with a total of only 1000 or so who had become infected and only 60 or so dead. This would be an infection rate from anyone who was wandering around the countryside now and anyone else catching the virus and passing it on at the rate of 1.5.


If we are unwilling to put the whole population into quarantine and only quarantine those who might be infected or who are already infected then at best we might achieve an infectious rate of 1.7, But that very very optimistic 0.2 difference results of the catastrophic change to the outcome. The Disease will remain with us until early next year at which time almost 40,000 will have been infected with More than 2000 dead.

So what do we have to do to get the infectious rate down to the incredibly low 1.7? It means we must do every single thing in our power to avoid all kinds of personal contact, wear masks goggles gloves et cetera, work at home, close the schools, stop all group gatherings including funerals, church services and everything else we thought would be okay. All shops would have to close except for grocery and pharmacy shopping. It means that we would have to do live a very restricted life for more than nine months possibly up to a year.

If we don't do anything and Simply catch those who are infected as we find them (catch and release) then it is a very different story, a story so Horrific it is hard to tell. In two months there will be Insufficient hospital beds available for critically ill for life-saving treatment. Over half the population would have contracted the disease and as many as 100,000 could die. most of these deaths will Be because there is insufficient medical facilities to Treat those who are critical.


If I was planning our survival I would go for less significant entry restrictions into the country based on origin and status of health, percentage of vulnerability and such like, every single person must keep a diary identifying every person they have come in contact with so if they do contract the disease it will be easier to trace who who caused the infection and who else might be infected, severely restrict gatherings including working from home as much is possible, isolating or quarantining as many people as possible particularly those who are most vulnerable such as everybody over the age of about 60. Let's say about 25% of the population in the older age group and all of the injured and infirm. What this would do is reduce the number of vulnerable hosts for the virus with most of the people acquiring the virus being well equipped to endure the effects of the virus to the extent that they will just suffer something equivalent to a normal influenza with perhaps even half of them only feeling a little poorly. this way we would only have a death rate of about 100. How much would it cost the government to support 25% of the population in their own homes? Probably not very much.

like China our government made some mistakes in the beginning but then woke themselves up to the serious nature of the problem and started doing something. stopping Polly Fest and the Christchurch shooting Memorial was a good start followed by Closing our borders. A good start but more is required. I trust that we will see the rest of the plan unfold in the next few days or so which of course will include wide scale testing whereby tens of thousands are tested each week as opposed to about three or 400 tested over the last week or two.
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#55 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 15 March 2020 - 02:31 PM

Minimum information Critical for pandemic planning
Obviously of our government is going to impose severe restrictions upon the population to obtain the cooperation from a first world country they are going to need to be transparent with us making full disclosure of the most up-to-date medical information, calculated level of risk, what resources are available, the plan to manage those risks and at what cost to us. This information is necessary to get everybody on board with the government's plan or if necessary question that plan. Having said that it is important that we as a population follow the plan even if it is not a perfect plan.

We need to know the government's plan even if this is a work in progress. We see that government after government are doing stupid things which undermines the authority of these governments. The worst thing that can happen is the zombie apocalypse or anarchy.

We need the daily totals of the following:


All statistics should identify Covid 19 S or Covid 19 L (the very aggressive mutated version)

Number of people entering the country with Covid 19 S

Number of people entering the country with Covid 19

Number of locally acquired Covid 19 from someone coming from overseas

Number of locally acquired Covid 19

Number of tests carried out for Covid 19

Number at risk and in quarantine

Number suspected to be infected and in quarantine

Number finishing the period of quarantining

Number indicating that they have acquired Covid 19

Number that have been confirmed to have Covid 19

The number Infected determined to be in the 80% is not critical group

The number that are determined to be in the 15% serious but not critical

Number that are determined to be critical (5%)

Number that are hospitalised

Number of hospital beds still available

Number that are currently on oxygen

Number of recoveries

Number of deaths

In my view the following is the most Achievable Cost-effective plan of action to survive Covid 19

I am of the opinion that the very best option is to immediately start quarantining the most vulnerable amongst us progressively working down to those of about 60and above and those who are injured by way of their injuries or clinical condition. Quite obviously although those who have chosen to be smokers and others of that ilk should not be allowed to use up valuable and limited resources. Taking these vulnerable people out of the population line of fire of Covid 19 will without doubt dramatically reduce the death rate and leave the very limited medical services available for the percentage of the more able-bodied people, will acquire Covid 19 in a more random fashion. Where possible even the able-bodied people should reduce their exposure such as working from home. Nobody should attend any kind of larger function.


As it is obvious that simply closing our borders to outsiders will not in any way or form solve Covid 19 but only slow its progress for just a few weeks there needs to be further planning carried out with urgency prior to this situation getting out of hand. Instead of closing the borders it would be quite viable for those wishing to come to New Zealand to undergo a laboratory test to confirm that they are not carrying Covid 19 and have been isolated immediately before coming to New Zealand. The test is quite cheap, readily available in most first world countries and other countries such as China. Those planning to attend studies in New Zealand for example would be glad of this opportunity, as would the business traveller and possibly even substantial number of tourists who would be afraid to go anywhere else but glad to come to New Zealand if they know we have world leading procedures in place to maintain their safety as well as ours.
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#56 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 16 March 2020 - 06:53 AM

Vital Global Information Please watch
https://www.youtube....Fk34nhoI&t=610s

NZ is about 2-3 month behind UK
UK + advice

134 = 459
10 deaths


PM
Real number higher Worst public health crisis for a generation

There will be deaths Temp 37.8 +
or new continuous cough self-isolate for a week
No cruises for over 70s No international school trips
Later household quarantine to come
Delay disease
Protect the vulnerable


Patrick
4 weeks behind Italy
5,000 - 10,000 infected now
Delay and lower peak
Not possible to stop people getting virus
5 days of mild viral illness followed by immunological reaction in a minority of cases
Schools may need to close for 13 – 16 weeks
Peak 10 – 14 weeks away


Chris https://www.youtube....Fk34nhoI&t=610s
Contain phase finishes today, moving on to delay Contain has reduced rate of seeding of the virus
Now in the delay phase
Wash hands
Continuous and new cough OR 37.8 stay at home for 7 days (25% reduction in peak)
Household isolation (50% lower peak)
To,
Protect vulnerable people
Reduce and delay peak
Virus max transmission around first symptoms then for a few days, not infectious after 7 days
Minor symptomatic people can be very infectious, ? how many
Minor symptoms do not call 111
No longer needed to identify every case, testing capacity moved to symptomatic people in hospital
Testing based on symptoms and severity, not travel history
Social distancing around the vulnerable later, not yet
Children do get infected
Top number is 80%
CFR 1% overall, higher in older, lower in younger ages
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#57 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 16 March 2020 - 07:31 AM

As at 15/3/20 NZ had 8 cases of Covid 19

New Zealand’s seventh and eighth cases of COVID-19 were announced today in two travellers recently arrived in New Zealand.

New Zealand now has eight confirmed cases based on positive test results and two probable cases. The two patients previously in hospital – one confirmed case and one probable case, are now recovering at home with daily checks by health staff.

= 10 COVID-19
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#58 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 16 March 2020 - 09:07 AM

  • 8 confirmed cases
  • 2 probable cases
  • 432 negative tests.
There remain a number of tests underway today.
As of yesterday, there are 3,015 registered (people or households) and currently in isolation .

6,900 have completed isolation. There have been 10,615 total registrations.


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#59 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 16 March 2020 - 06:32 PM

covid 19 is progressing pretty much as I thought be it a little bit slower in New Zealand than I had predicted (about 10% slower) I'm looking for key data such as infections that have been initiated from within New Zealand and then it would have to be for a week or 2 to demonstrate a pattern. Effectively closing down the borders is going to have a slowdown impact but there are give other things that could be done instead. The big problem is that most of the overseas people have spoken to today confessed that there is a good chance they would not obey the quarantine rules. Only about 50% would honour the arrangement completely with most of the remainder being from a little lax to totally disregarding the arrangement. This is a very leaky system. I discussed what I would consider a sound plan in previous postings.

The key point is reducing the number of active illnesses at any one time so as to not overburden our health system. You may have heard of the spike been turned into a long hump. By my calculations we would need that slow hump to last well over a year and even then we would be hoping that a vaccine will be developed toward the end of that time. Anything less than that is going to overwhelm our health systems with the results of the most vulnerable being denied medical treatment altogether and left to die. This is what is happening right now in Italy. Very large numbers are being refused medical treatment and a dying. We will never know the truth about China but at least they rapidly built facilities to provide over 10,000 hospital beds in Wuhan so quite probably they would have turned away very few to die at home. I believe South Korea would have been none at all.

This is not the time for us to beinventing our own procedures from our own data.. There is plenty of medical and scientific data to build the plan on from our overseas brothers.



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#60 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 16 March 2020 - 11:49 PM

Coronavirus Update- I'm Under Quarantine!
I flew back to Shenzhen- but I'll be in quarantine a while due to the COVID-19 virus.


Naomi 'SexyCyborg' Wu
https://www.youtube....h?v=9aNicswdyU4





You’re looking good Naomi in your work outfit Naomi. I’m glad that you’re back home and safe. Sorry about the quarantine but you should be fine. Please stay safe from your fan in NZ
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