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Coronavirus (COVID-19) Preparation and Prevention for those who are injured

#101 User is offline   Hemi 

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 03:54 AM

View PostAlan Thomas, on 27 March 2020 - 11:18 PM, said:

not even the police were interested in your drivel, let alone anybody else. All that is wanted from you is that you take the documents are you possess along to the local police station.

Nothing available that would help you Thomas.
You’d end up before the judge again. :lol:
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#102 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 10:59 AM

As ACC claimants seeking payment from the ACC for medical treatment and other entitlements right up to lifesaving level it is understandable that large numbers of New Zealanders are concerned that the government may make an economic decision to its own advantage. This is a rather obvious concern given the many decades of concerns about the ACC decision making processes up until now.

On one side the government seeks to get re-elected by servicing the needs of the majority. It particularly focuses on the majority that continues to either pay tax for our potential breeders to produce even more tax payers.

On the other side we see ACC collecting and stockpiling billions upon billions of dollars in total disregard to as duty to provide funding for life-saving medical treatment Even though the treatment might return the person to the workplace. It seems to be a very clear objective that results in sacrificing the injured and infirm for the benefit of stockpiling large sums of money.

So we have a similar scenario now whereby the government is faced with insufficient funds to pay for life-saving medical equipment. In fact the medical professionals have been complaining that the government has not provided sufficient to meet the basic needs of the population even without the advent of the Covid-19 emergency.

We have a population of around 4.5 million of which between 60-70% are going to contract Covid-19Of which 20% are going to need medical treatment. This gives us a number of Very conservatively 500,000. Obviously no government funded medical facility is going to handle all of those it wants which is the reason why we are having a locked down in order to spread that number over a longer period of time such as 12 months. That gives us Around 45,000 a month of which about 25% will need critical care and need respirators and even ventilators along with all of the ancillary equipment and medical staff. That gives us a number of a little over 11,000.

So the question is whether or not the government has any plans whatsoever to provide the necessary funding in order to acquire the necessary medical equipment to support 11,000 patients and medical care per month. At the moment, counting the surgical equipment, we are only able to assist 500 at any one time. Quite clearly we can't stop surgery for 12 months so that 500 number is even lower, perhaps.

The problem that the government is facing is funding and supplying for the needs of just over 10,000 per month. Firstly we are we going to get the equipment because every other country in the world has the same problem and this simply is not enough equipment to go round. So the cost of 10,000 units of equipment costing say at the very least $10,000 each is $100 million. The problem as the cost is not just the primary equipment at all the ancillary equipment that goes with it. This would be over $1 billion. While New Zealand can actually afford this the real problem is finding a supplier within the next month or so as that is when we can expect the numbers that are hospitalised to skyrocket. We will have an early peak in the early stage followed by another lower but longer hump that hopefully will reduce in the second stage of the 12 months I have described. No traditional manufacturing company is going to produce Equipment at breakneck speeds as they simply aren't geared up for this type of thing. This type of equipment will need to be produced as per initiated by Elon musk and those like him and we are going to have to accept that there will be some deaths because of the inadequacies of such equipment produced by those who are not traditionally producing this type of equipment.

Looking at the traditional equipment and approaches to treatment we can see that most equipment still being supplied is well behind the times. Most equipment is exceedingly overengineered. One size does not fit all. For example those in the very early stages of treatment needs can get by with very primitive equipment. Treating this group at the earliest possible stage will be a stitch in time saving nine. In other words lower the number that need a high level of equipment.

I will discuss the impact of the shortfall of available medical equipment in my next post



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#103 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted 29 March 2020 - 12:35 PM

It is quite obvious that unless the current government number four protocols actually work The numbers of those infected with covid-19 are going to climb quite rapidly in the coming months.

In the worst case scenario we're going to have somewhere around 10,000 critically ill people in hospital like conditions per month with perhaps the majority needing to be on some form of respiration and the worst of them on oxygen as well. We simply don't have the equipment to provide medical services to this large number. This means that they will be triaged out of medical care and comforted until they pass away. This is what is happening throughout Europe in countries that have a higher ratio of hospital beds, respirators, ventilators and oxygen than we do in New Zealand. Any thoughts of purchasing respiration equipment as and when needed is ridiculous in the extreme as every country in the world will be attempting to do this. Various courageous manufacturing companies are attempting to meet the need. However it is not a simple matter of producing machinery as that machinery needs to be operated by expert medical staff. We simply don't have the staff, let alone hospital beds.


If on the other hand the way in which our government has handled this emergency turns out to be absolutely perfect in every detail and the government also adds an additional classification to the emergency protocols which perhaps we should call plan 5 Which includes tracking down the vast majority of anybody that has had any contact with someone who is infected and have them tested and quarantine them away from everyone else until they are given clearance So as to locate every last person who is infected prior to have them exhibiting any kind of symptoms. At the moment these tests are costing somewhere between 100-$200 but it does seem that there is going to be a far cheaper test available within the month which would be in the nick of time, provided the government funds these more expensive testing kits until the cheaper ones arrive.


Plan 4, which we will hope to be successful, involves quarantining the entire country and waiting to see if there isn't too many that show themselves to be infected. This plan has been made in spite of the fact that all the successful countries have simply tested the whole population regardless. Countries like Italy have decided to test the entire population after it is too late.


Unless the government makes decisions and funds based on a proactive protocol rather than a reactive protocol by testing all possible / potential persons that have any kind of association with anyone infected the current scheme is bound to fail to support the medical professionals attempt to save large numbers of those who are about to die over the coming year. This is not a decision that can be made in the months to come but rather must be made immediately, not even waiting for the trial period of the covenant 4 plan.



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#104 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted Yesterday, 10:07 AM

Okay so out of the more than 500 that have the virus we have now had the first death company more of that 500 are going to die.

As most of the victims to covid-19 acquired their disease overseas with a higher representation also being in the older age group I'm going to go with the WHO figure of 3.6%.

Therefore with in the month there should be 18 deaths from covid-19.

If we take in to account all of those who have acquired this disease but don't yet know it because our government is and funding tests for those who don't have symptoms we should also take into account WHO advice that the real figure will be between 10 and 20 x the data that we have collected. This means 180 - 360 dead within the month.

I do hope that the advice concerning these calculations is incorrect while having regard for a very optimistic view of our medical health systems being fresh and eager to provide the best treatment available. This of position of course does change the following month in the event that these figures are correct and the health systems are therefore overloaded.

I am encouraged to see that medical services are attempting to make do with the limited resources that have been funded by planning for large-scale makeshift hospital facilities in a similar manner to overseas countries, in accordance with New Zealand budget.

My grandmother always told me that a stitch in time saves nine. I think she was right.

We are living in interesting times

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#105 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted Yesterday, 04:54 PM

England considers that the lockdown will be for around six months.

Our Prime Minister took a viewpoint that would only be for four months in one of your recent speeches.

Other countries such as America are considering the possibility of 12 to 18 months being more relevant.

It is very optimistic to think that any form of control could take place over covid-19 By isolation without comprehensive testing of all potential cases rather than the current testing of suspected cases.

The lesson that has been learned all over the world is that decisions concerning the virus that does not present itself until after two weeks after infection while still being infectious in the new host is the true nature of the problem and the reason why this disease is so very dangerous for the whole planet.

It is pointless waiting for evidence of infection is quite obviously it is about two weeks too late.

The epidemic and pandemic profiling very clearly demonstrate that the only way forward is to test as many people as possible starting with the most probable.

Under no circumstances should anybody entertain the idea of making decisions based on historical information in this case.

Reactive decision-making is doomed to failure and the most dimwitted politicians seem to be continually doing this throughout the world in defiance of the best medical professionals the world has to offer. Why are our politicians so greedy for power when they are so so very incompetent?

Proactive decision-making is a prerequisite to gaining control of covid-19.

We simply must increase the level of testing to something in the tens of thousands per day otherwise plan 4 is doomed to fail.

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#106 User is offline   Alan Thomas 

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Posted Yesterday, 05:24 PM

Respirator

The respirator design is now up to the prototype stage. I have infinite control over the volume and pressure of air and the speed it is delivered While also maintaining pressure during the expelling phase. It has a full faced mask with flush mounted tubes which allows the patient to sleep in any position, even facedown as it is very important for the patient to rotate and especially be in the facedown position.


In addition I have also got in place the fittings to have four different patients connected to the one device.


Anybody who has medical qualifications and experience in the use of a respirator or even incubator and willing to offer their input I would be most grateful.



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